Sunday, September 15, 2024

Solar power in Ireland doubles yearly

When will Ireland have enough solar to power the country? Summer 2026 for small periods and Summer 2027 for most of the days.


Solar output in Ireland nearly doubles every year. The most so far is 700mw the 31st of August 2024 17.2% from grid scale solar systems. The highest in 2023 was 400mw.
August is not an ideal month and more electricity than that would be possible if it was sunnier, possibly about 300mw more. But that is the most we have actually gotten.
Grid scale solar and domestic are about equal. Which means this figure is close to 34% solar at the time.

That doubles summer 2025 to 68%. Summer 2026 to 136% and Summer 2027 to 272% of power at peak. That doubling is optimistic, though a particular June day could be really sunny and beat that. But the growth is still so quick that at some point in 2026 the grid will be getting as much solar as it can take. And most summer days in 2027 will be like that. 

I do not think most Irish people realise this. Our electricity plans are not setup to give us cheap electricity when there is a glut of wind or solar. Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough.



Solar only gives about 20-25% of the power in winter months. But that still would be a fair chunk of the grid once solar can supply 100%+ of needs.

So if next summer is sunny we could have 'shock as too much solar for grid' articles are written. And by the summers after solar will be so much that electricity prices should get really cheap.



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