Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Dry January 2021

Is 2021 a good time to not drink booze for a month?

Reasons it is not: Things are tough and if a pint makes them less tough for you in a dark scary January rock on for yourself. This post is not trying to rag on anyone.

Reasons it is:
1. Health short term. Several studies have shown giving up booze for a month improves sleep and liver health. Reduces weight, cholesterol, Blood pressure and blood glucose

"Richard de Visser, University of Sussex, surveyed 857 participants of Dry January 2019 before and after their month of abstinence, finding 71 per cent slept better, 67 per cent had more energy, 58 per cent lost weight, and 54 per cent had better skin".
"
Our study saw a weight loss of around 2kg, a decrease in blood pressure of around 5%, and improvement in diabetes risk of almost 30%." 

2. Speculative Coronavirus: Someone who has slept better, has lower blood pressure and weighs less is probably slightly less likely to have really bad covid effects. Those links at least suggest improving each should bring benefits. I can find no specific moderate alcohol and covid research but I would lay a bet that improving these biomarkers improves slightly overall outcomes. Even a very small effect is also fairly easy to achieve, all it is is a month of not doing something.

3. Pubs are closed. Meeting your friends for pints are the best drinks and you are not going to have those this January anyway.
Helping out pubs by going there through the usual January lull is good for them. But they are closed now so you can't do that this year.
Having to explain to your mates that you are on not drinking can be a bit intimidating. Though in my experience people are fine with it in practise. But you do not have that worry this year as you won't be out with them. 
These usual pub related reasons to not do dry January are not present this year.

4. Long term effects: Dry January does seem to reset drinking and reduce long term quantities. '
The research by de Visser found that in August the following year after taking part in Dry January, the 800 abstainers had cut back. The number of days they drank alcohol fell from an average 4.3 to 3.3 a week, the units consumed had slid from 8.6 to 7.1 per session, and frequency of drunkenness had fallen from 3.4 days per month to 2.1.

Replacement Options

You could really be thirsty. Drinking lots of water and other non alcoholic drinks to replace any booze you were drinking might make things easier.
Alcohol free beers have improved a lot in recent years. I think they used to have to evaporate off the alcohol. But now new yeasts can make beer tasting flavours without producing alcohol so this removal stage is skipped.
Alcohol free beers I have tried include

Lidl Non IPA is my favorite 9/10
BrewDog Nanny State quite nice though I could not imagine drinking loads of them 8/10
Heineken 0.0% Non-Alcoholic Beer decidely meh 3/10
Bitburger Drive grand 6/10
Budvar 4/10
Perlenbacher 0.0% 7/10
Beck's Non-Alcoholic I didn't like this. It tastes chemically 2/10
Carlsberg non alcoholic Better than Heineken 6/10
Guinness "Pure Brew" 6/10
Dungarvan Main Sail I really liked though it might be hard to get 9/10
In general the east European boring lagers do a non alcoholic beer and any I have tried have been grand.
I do not have great taste in beer. So get a bottle of each one you see and try yourself to find one you like. I do not see the point of alcohol free spirits. Red grape juice is worth getting if you drink red wine. Some people find they eat more sweets during dry January.



If you can get some sort of exercise challenge for the month I feel it gives you something useful to focus a bit on. Starting Strength weightlifting is good though it might be hard with the gyms closed. Couch to 5km is easier given the current circumstances. Some people swear by Yoga or hot baths to help them chill out.

That is my four reasons it might be a good idea to not drink this January. And a few replacement options that can help. If you do try Dry January let me know how you get on?



2020 books review

 I read 33 books in 2020. 

My favorite non fiction was We Are the Weather: Saving the Planet Begins at Breakfast by Jonathan Safran Foer it is about Climate Change and what the individual can do about it. It is slightly poetic and surreal which I like in non fiction books. Runner up was The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Evolution by Richard Dawkins. He is a really good writer and knows evolution really well.

My favorite fiction was Crime and Punishment by Dostoyevsky. I love his awful protagonists. On that note Exciting Times by Naoise Dolan is probably the book I would recommend that you might actually read. Pretty unpleasant, as in believable, characters, great dialog. And a quick fun read.


I love detective books. Classic stuff without autopsies and graphic murders. And I never get who did it. The best I read this year was The Inugami Curse by Seishi Yokomizo. If you know of any good classic crime fiction translated into English please let me know in the comments. 


Sunday, December 27, 2020

Vaccinate the old fast

The CDC give Infection Fatality Ratios for people of different ages as

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

This mens 5.4% of all over 70s who are infected with Covid they believe will die.

The number of people in these age groups in Ireland is


425k over 70s

55-69 year olds =720k 

18-54 is 1,350,000

0-18 about 1,200,000 people

The ages do not quite line up but they are close enough.

If all over 70s in Ireland got infected with covid 23,000 would die. Assuming the infections were spaced out enough that the medical system stayed working.

All 55-69 about 3,600 would die

All adults 1350000 * 0.0002= 270 deaths 

Children=36

This ignores long term issues that Covid could cause. But hospitalisation numbers track Deaths pretty clearly. And long term issues seem to track hospitalisations.

The numbers are pretty stark though and indicate to me we should rapidly vaccinate older (and vulnerable) people as quickly as practical.