Monday, October 21, 2024

Summer 2026 everything gets weird

I think in the summer of 2026 lots of fundamental improvements in human lives will happen


1. Energy. Solar electricity will be plentiful enough that everyone starts to notice prices falling. Batteries will be deployed enough that the effect will extend into peak times.


2. Obesity. The glp-1 drugs go off patent in March 2026. And cheap generic versions will be commonly taken

Generic drugs get cheap fast
Patent expiry date. There could be some shenanigans gets the patent extended. 

I'm predicting 10+% of the population lose 6 kilos during the summer of 2026.

3. Health vaccines. New improved vaccines for TB, Malaria and even cancer should be rolled out enough by then to be visible in lifespan statistics.

4. Self driving cars. These have seemed in the cusp of deployment for a long time. I've been wrong before on when they will be regularly seen. But I'm going to risk being wrong again and claim it's summer 2026.


5. Drones. My local MacDonalds has a drone base behind it. Delivering food orders it seems like a few times a minute. This tech from Manna seems mature enough that it could be common lots of places in a year and a half.



6. Housing. I got nothing here. I can't see the build loads of apartments in a factory and assemble them on site solution being rolled out by then. Hopefully I'm wrong though. 


7. LLMS and AI. The tech is there and getting better but it is still not deployed in a way that really helps people. I think I'm a year and a half ai assistants for office jobs will be regularly used though. 


8.... Any other ideas for things that are about to change or lives a lot?

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