Off Patent Ozempic and the Summer of 2026

I predicted in 2024 that 10% of us would 6kg of bodyweight this year. Here is how an even bigger effect might happen.

GLP-1 drugs start going off patent in India, China, Turkey, Canada, Brazil March 2026

Usually when drugs go off patent the price drops dramatically (32% in one year 80% in 8 years)

And as price drops people take more of something. I am not sure how much 'importing from India' sort of stuff will happen after March. But imagine the Brazilian, or Indian population get a side hustle of bringing in generic Ozempic. Loads of people take botox injections from beauticians and that seems pretty outside the usual medical system so something similar already happens. Even just dental and baldness trips to Turkey are a big thing getting weightloss jabs while there are another potential route.

Like any drug, not everyone reacts well to these so some will try them and give them up. But what happens if a larger percentage suddenly starts taking them? Grocery spending on snacks goes down a lot. 6% reduction in total spend but most of that focused on the unhealthier foods.

But there is one effect that jumps out. Booze 

About half of booze is consumed by alcoholics or borderline alcoholics. Theres evidence that these drugs roughly half alcohol consumption in this group. If heavy drinkers take up Ozempic in a big way that will lead to a huge drop in alcohol sales. 

If the price of these drugs drops a lot the savings on alcohol will make up a significant chunk of the costs of the drug itself for this group. For example at 160 euro a month in Ireland. At 6 euro a pint in a pub here that add up to under a pint a day currently. If going off patent drops that drug price a lot these drugs could save a lot of money for heavy drinkers.

Younger people already drink less than their parents did at their age. And average drinking amounts have been falling for a quarter of a century. 

Combine the effects and its possible to imagine a huge swath of pubs closing fairly rapidly. A large cohort of the best customers reducing drinking rapidly. And general social trends showing this won't pick up in the future. Could make irelands pub culture disappear quite fast.

edit: March 31st 2026 'Sun Pharmaceutical, one of the top generics manufacturers in the world, on Saturday launched a generic semaglutide for as low as 750 rupees ($8) for a weekly injection,' that is a saving money as consumption falls price as in reduction of consumption of treats and booze would pay $8 a week. 'Snacks and soda took the brunt of reduced spending by consumers after GLP-1 treatment: snacks and confectionary (-52%), prepared baked goods (-47%), soda/sugary beverages (-28%), alcoholic beverages (-17%) ' 

Indian GLP-1 generics prices in April 2026 have already dropped to below 40 euro a month.

How will we show off next?

How people show off, or signal status, changes over time. Nowadays eating in famous fancy restaurants and travelling are higher status than in recent times. Whereas knowing about music, books and films seem to be less high status. Probably because anyone with bittorrent can look at any of these media for free. 

One way people signal status is to be slim. GLP-1 inhibitors are going to make this less of a signal soon. these drugs will get cheaper, easier to take and more effective. Meaning that more people will take them and reduce their weight. 

People argue that you should eat healthier instead but it is not an instead situation. People on GLP-1 eat more healthy foods, less junk foods and less alcohol.

Studies show an 11% reduction in overall food shopping spend (and more on alcohol).

What will people move to to signal that they are strong willed and look after themselves if weight is not as much of a signal? I guess clothes.

Clothes fashions have always cycled between casual and formal trends. The pandemic made it ok for adults to wander around in tracksuit bottoms and runners. My guess is that a more formal fashion will come in now where expensive clothes and tailoring is used as a signal as the status signal from weight delines in power.