Have Batteries for Ireland's excess wind energy

Ireland regularly produces more energy, from wind, than it needs at night. 95GWh is more than the increase that happens 5-7pm. This means that if we could store the wind energy at night it would significantly help during peak hours of the evening.

How much would this cost? 

"Benchmark Lithium ion Battery Cell prices have fallen to $66.5/kWh in September (Benchmark’s Global Weighted Average); falling just shy of 20% this year". So if we store €60.38 worth of kWh energy that means the battery pays for itself.

At retail prices that is 190 stores and discharges. There is a wholesale retail difference but still six months payback time is so short as to still make it really economical.

Solar already significantly add to the electricity supply which means you might be able to get two discharges on a battery a day. Once in the smaller morning peak using overnight wind power and again in the evening using the days solar.

We have excess wind energy, and next summer solar, so often that grid scale lithium batteries could pay for themselves in months.

Summer 2026 everything gets weird

I think in the summer of 2026 lots of fundamental improvements in human lives will happen

1. Energy. Solar electricity will be plentiful enough that everyone starts to notice prices falling. Batteries will be deployed enough that the effect will extend into peak times.

2. Obesity. The glp-1 drugs go off patent in March 2026. And cheap generic versions will be commonly taken

Generic drugs get cheap fast

Patent expiry date. There could be some shenanigans gets the patent extended. 

I'm predicting 10+% of the population lose 6 kilos during the summer of 2026.

3. Health vaccines. New improved vaccines for TB, Malaria and even cancer should be rolled out enough by then to be visible in lifespan statistics.

4. Self driving cars. These have seemed in the cusp of deployment for a long time. I've been wrong before on when they will be regularly seen. But I'm going to risk being wrong again and claim it's summer 2026.

5. Drones. My local MacDonalds has a drone base behind it. Delivering food orders it seems like a few times a minute. This tech from Manna seems mature enough that it could be common lots of places in a year and a half.

6. Housing. I got nothing here. I can't see the build loads of apartments in a factory and assemble them on site solution being rolled out by then. Hopefully I'm wrong though. 

7. LLMS and AI. The tech is there and getting better but it is still not deployed in a way that really helps people. I think I'm a year and a half ai assistants for office jobs will be regularly used though. 

8.... Any other ideas for things that are about to change or lives a lot?

How will we show off next?

How people show off, or signal status, changes over time. Nowadays eating in famous fancy restaurants and travelling are higher status than in recent times. Whereas knowing about music, books and films seem to be less high status. Probably because anyone with bittorrent can look at any of these media for free. 

One way people signal status is to be slim. GLP-1 inhibitors are going to make this less of a signal soon. these drugs will get cheaper, easier to take and more effective. Meaning that more people will take them and reduce their weight. 

People argue that you should eat healthier instead but it is not an instead situation. People on GLP-1 eat more healthy foods, less junk foods and less alcohol.

Studies show an 11% reduction in overall food shopping spend (and more on alcohol).

What will people move to to signal that they are strong willed and look after themselves if weight is not as much of a signal? I guess clothes.

Clothes fashions have always cycled between casual and formal trends. The pandemic made it ok for adults to wander around in tracksuit bottoms and runners. My guess is that a more formal fashion will come in now where expensive clothes and tailoring is used as a signal as the status signal from weight delines in power.

Solar power in Ireland doubles yearly

When will Ireland have enough solar to power the country? Summer 2026 for small periods and Summer 2027 for most of the days.

Solar output in Ireland nearly doubles every year. The most so far is 700mw the 31st of August 2024 17.2% from grid scale solar systems. The highest in 2023 was 400mw.
August is not an ideal month and more electricity than that would be possible if it was sunnier, possibly about 300mw more. But that is the most we have actually gotten.
Grid scale solar and domestic are about equal. Which means this figure is close to 34% solar at the time.

That doubles summer 2025 to 68%. Summer 2026 to 136% and Summer 2027 to 272% of power at peak. That doubling is optimistic, though a particular June day could be really sunny and beat that. But the growth is still so quick that at some point in 2026 the grid will be getting as much solar as it can take. And most summer days in 2027 will be like that. 

I do not think most Irish people realise this. Our electricity plans are not setup to give us cheap electricity when there is a glut of wind or solar. Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough.

Solar only gives about 20-25% of the power in winter months. But that still would be a fair chunk of the grid once solar can supply 100%+ of needs.

So if next summer is sunny we could have 'shock as too much solar for grid' articles are written. And by the summers after solar will be so much that electricity prices should get really cheap.

Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough

Smart meter electricity plans in Ireland do not take into account how plentiful the wind and sunshine is. You have one time based rate that does not change even if there is a glut of renewable electricity.

If the price dropped like the wholesale price does. It would incentivise people to take up energy when it is cheap. This would reduce peak demand later.
 

A large percentage of people now have electric cars. 20% of new car sales are electric. Filling them when wholesale prices are low reduces demand later. But at the moment there is no connection between wholesale and retail prices.

Even without batteries these times could be used to heat water for showers in the morning Energy Cloud is a charity that encourages this 'Diverting surplus renewable energy which would otherwise be wasted, with a primary focus homes in fuel poverty'. The price mechanism will do it as well. If electricity becomes cheap because it is plentiful people will use more of it then.

'The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh' and that was 2023 and prices keep dropping. At 44 cents a kWh, the current rate, 285 charges for free would pay for that battery. We are getting to the point where a battery charged at night by wind and during peak sunshine, when there are low wholesale prices, can be used in the morning and in the evening, twice a day. Which means with lower cost electricity than 22c that is currently paid at night in smart schemes batteries pay for themselves really fast.

Large infrastructure projects are now being rejected because of our electricity grid not being stable enough. South Dublin Council refuses Google Ireland data centre planning permission. And one simple way to reduce this is allowing smart meters to actually be smart and reduce retail prices when wholesale prices drop. That incentivises electricity usage to be match supply.

Medieval PAWGs

Chaucer wrote 'This wenche thikke ...I wol nat lye' predating Sir-Mix-A-lot by about 600 years.

'This wenche thikke and wel y-growen was, With camuse nose and yën greye as glas; With buttokes brode and brestes rounde and hye But right fair was hir heer, I wol nat lye.'

This Wench was thick and well grown With a snub nose and grey eyes with broad buttocks and round high breasts but right fair was her hair. I cannot lie

Jaws Gravestone in Ireland?

 'Here lies the body of Mary Lee; 

Died at the age of a hundred and three. 

For fifteen years she kept her virginity; 

Not a bad record for this vicinity.' Robert Shaw says this poem in Jaws 

The scene is here 

Spielberg asked Shaw for the author so he could get it cleared. But Shaw said as it was from a tombstone in a graveyard near him in Ireland it would not need clearance.

But I can't find a reference for the actual tombstone. Does anyone know where it might be? Shaw lived at Drimbawn House in Tourmakeady, County Mayo

It is very unlikely that would ever be written on an Irish gravestone. But some version of it might have been and then altered by local humour. Something like  'Here lies the body of Mary Lee; died at the age of a hundred and three. For all her life she kept her fidelity.'

The only Mary Lee I can find in Irish graveyards database is this one
which is in Moycullen Old Cemetery not too far from Shaw's home

Declan Moore the Archaeologist kindly visited this grave but the text is no longer legible 

  So we might never know if it is the original source of the legendary jaws gravestone.