Wednesday, October 09, 2024

How will we show off next?

How people show off, or signal status, changes over time. Nowadays eating in famous fancy restaurants and travelling are higher status than in recent times. Whereas knowing about music, books and films seem to be less high status. Probably because anyone with bittorrent can look at any of these media for free. 


One way people signal status is to be slim. GLP-1 inhibitors are going to make this less of a signal soon. these drugs will get cheaper, easier to take and more effective. Meaning that more people will take them and reduce their weight. 


People argue that you should eat healthier instead but it is not an instead situation. People on GLP-1 eat more healthy foods, less junk foods and less alcohol.



Studies show an 11% reduction in overall food shopping spend (and more on alcohol).

What will people move to to signal that they are strong willed and look after themselves if weight is not as much of a signal? I guess clothes.

Clothes fashions have always cycled between casual and formal trends. The pandemic made it ok for adults to wander around in tracksuit bottoms and runners. My guess is that a more formal fashion will come in now where expensive clothes and tailoring is used as a signal as the status signal from weight delines in power.

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Solar power in Ireland doubles yearly

When will Ireland have enough solar to power the country? Summer 2026 for small periods and Summer 2027 for most of the days.


Solar output in Ireland nearly doubles every year. The most so far is 700mw the 31st of August 2024 17.2% from grid scale solar systems. The highest in 2023 was 400mw.
August is not an ideal month and more electricity than that would be possible if it was sunnier, possibly about 300mw more. But that is the most we have actually gotten.
Grid scale solar and domestic are about equal. Which means this figure is close to 34% solar at the time.

That doubles summer 2025 to 68%. Summer 2026 to 136% and Summer 2027 to 272% of power at peak. That doubling is optimistic, though a particular June day could be really sunny and beat that. But the growth is still so quick that at some point in 2026 the grid will be getting as much solar as it can take. And most summer days in 2027 will be like that. 

I do not think most Irish people realise this. Our electricity plans are not setup to give us cheap electricity when there is a glut of wind or solar. Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough.



Solar only gives about 20-25% of the power in winter months. But that still would be a fair chunk of the grid once solar can supply 100%+ of needs.

So if next summer is sunny we could have 'shock as too much solar for grid' articles are written. And by the summers after solar will be so much that electricity prices should get really cheap.



Saturday, September 07, 2024

Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough

Smart meter electricity plans in Ireland do not take into account how plentiful the wind and sunshine is. You have one time based rate that does not change even if there is a glut of renewable electricity.


If the price dropped like the wholesale price does. It would incentivise people to take up energy when it is cheap. This would reduce peak demand later.
 

A large percentage of people now have electric cars. 20% of new car sales are electric. Filling them when wholesale prices are low reduces demand later. But at the moment there is no connection between wholesale and retail prices.

Even without batteries these times could be used to heat water for showers in the morning Energy Cloud is a charity that encourages this 'Diverting surplus renewable energy which would otherwise be wasted, with a primary focus homes in fuel poverty'. The price mechanism will do it as well. If electricity becomes cheap because it is plentiful people will use more of it then.

'The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh' and that was 2023 and prices keep dropping. At 44 cents a kWh, the current rate, 285 charges for free would pay for that battery. We are getting to the point where a battery charged at night by wind and during peak sunshine, when there are low wholesale prices, can be used in the morning and in the evening, twice a day. Which means with lower cost electricity than 22c that is currently paid at night in smart schemes batteries pay for themselves really fast.

Large infrastructure projects are now being rejected because of our electricity grid not being stable enough. South Dublin Council refuses Google Ireland data centre planning permission. And one simple way to reduce this is allowing smart meters to actually be smart and reduce retail prices when wholesale prices drop. That incentivises electricity usage to be match supply.





Friday, August 23, 2024

Medieval PAWGs

Chaucer wrote 'This wenche thikke ...I wol nat lye' predating Sir-Mix-A-lot by about 600 years.

'This wenche thikke and wel y-growen was, With camuse nose and yën greye as glas; With buttokes brode and brestes rounde and hye But right fair was hir heer, I wol nat lye.'


This Wench was thick and well grown With a snub nose and grey eyes with broad buttocks and round high breasts but right fair was her hair. I cannot lie




Thursday, August 15, 2024

Jaws Gravestone in Ireland?

 'Here lies the body of Mary Lee; 

Died at the age of a hundred and three. 

For fifteen years she kept her virginity; 

Not a bad record for this vicinity.' Robert Shaw says this poem in Jaws 

The scene is here 



Spielberg asked Shaw for the author so he could get it cleared. But Shaw said as it was from a tombstone in a graveyard near him in Ireland it would not need clearance.

But I can't find a reference for the actual tombstone. Does anyone know where it might be? Shaw lived at Drimbawn House in Tourmakeady, County Mayo

It is very unlikely that would ever be written on an Irish gravestone. But some version of it might have been and then altered by local humour. Something like  'Here lies the body of Mary Lee; died at the age of a hundred and three. For all her life she kept her fidelity.'

The only Mary Lee I can find in Irish graveyards database is this one
which is in Moycullen Old Cemetery not too far from Shaw's home



Declan Moore the Archaeologist kindly visited this grave but the text is no longer legible 


  So we might never know if it is the original source of the legendary jaws gravestone. 

Thursday, July 18, 2024

The First Virtual Reality Disassociation

What was the first time someone became so immersed in a virtual world that they disassociated and felt like they were really there? 

The term cyberspace has was coined in 1984 but I think the earliest case of thinking your body was out there operating away from your actual body was much earlier. 




Infinity Beckoned is a brilliant book about Space exploration. There's one amazing bit where a geologist gets so engrossed in maneuvering the Soviet Lunokhod 1970 probe on the moon that he disembodies



'Focusing so intently on those TV images, Basilevsky's mind psycholog- ically uncoupled from his earthbound body and replanted itself inside of Lunokhod. As if he was somehow now inside the tub and peering out through its cameras. In this altered state of consciousness, any sense of time utterly disappeared. "The working session ended quite late-maybe at five a.m. or six," he said. "And I get out after the session, and I could see the moon in the sky. I could see Mare Imbrium, and it was for me like splitting of my brain or my conscious. I see the moon, it was there, but I was there too! I had that feeling and it was very strong." Basilevsky needed to unplug—to savor some tea and enjoy a bit of quiet solo hiking through the trees. Something tangible to plant both his feet on Earth again.'

It is possible there were earlier cases. Probably involving radar screens but this sort of disembodiment seems to require your brain having control over where your sense organs can look and see. A loop between doing and sensing.




Sunday, March 10, 2024

Junior Cert Irish Audiobooks

 

We should have audiobooks of the Irish books we make kids study on the Junior cert. I made a list here of Irish language audiobooks I think we need. But the wishlist should start with the books we make 13-15 year olds read  

Having these books in audiobook format that would help students with their pronounciation and allow them get immersion in the texts while commuting etc.

Here is the list of the novels and short stories on the Junior cert. T2 is non gaelscoil prescribed texts and there are about 60,000 students per year. Which is a lot of people who could be helped with an audiobook.

The books students have to learn one from are

Sárú by Anna Heussaff 

LabhairAmach.com  by Áine Uí Fhoghlú 

Tóraíocht Taisce  by Mícheál Ó Ruairc 

Amach by Alan Titley

Smuf by Alan Titley

Hóng by Anna Heussaff

Daideo by Áine Ní Ghlinn does have an audiobook here 

Cúpla by Ógie Ó Céilleachair this seems to be the most common book used in Junior cert so this would be a great audiobook to make.




Éalú san Oíche by Colmán Ó Raghallaigh

Trumptaí Dumptaí agus An Falla Mór by Ré Ó Laighléis

Hiúdaí Beag Eithne by Ní Ghallchobhair

Gluaiseacht by Alan Titley recording is here (it is on the gaelscoil list) 

Some of these are used by more schools than others so even just recordings of the most popular ones would help a lot of students.

And the plays are

Gan Choinne by Ré Ó Laighléis 

Gleann Álainn by Brian Ó Baoill Youtube video teaching it with extra explanation 

Na Deoraithe  by Celia de Fréine 

Lá Buí Bealtaine  byMáiréad Ní Ghráda

An Casán  by Séamus de Bhilmot 

I could be missing some recordings that are available. If I am please let me know. 
These books tend to be under an hour of audio. Which means the cost and time for recording any one book is not high. Also because these are relatively simple books other Irish learners can benefit as well.