Solar power in Ireland doubles yearly

When will Ireland have enough solar to power the country? Summer 2026 for small periods and Summer 2027 for most of the days.

Solar output in Ireland nearly doubles every year. The most so far is 700mw the 31st of August 2024 17.2% from grid scale solar systems. The highest in 2023 was 400mw.
August is not an ideal month and more electricity than that would be possible if it was sunnier, possibly about 300mw more. But that is the most we have actually gotten.
Grid scale solar and domestic are about equal. Which means this figure is close to 34% solar at the time.

That doubles summer 2025 to 68%. Summer 2026 to 136% and Summer 2027 to 272% of power at peak. That doubling is optimistic, though a particular June day could be really sunny and beat that. But the growth is still so quick that at some point in 2026 the grid will be getting as much solar as it can take. And most summer days in 2027 will be like that. 

I do not think most Irish people realise this. Our electricity plans are not setup to give us cheap electricity when there is a glut of wind or solar. Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough.

Solar only gives about 20-25% of the power in winter months. But that still would be a fair chunk of the grid once solar can supply 100%+ of needs.

So if next summer is sunny we could have 'shock as too much solar for grid' articles are written. And by the summers after solar will be so much that electricity prices should get really cheap.

Irish Smart Meters are not Smart Enough

Smart meter electricity plans in Ireland do not take into account how plentiful the wind and sunshine is. You have one time based rate that does not change even if there is a glut of renewable electricity.

If the price dropped like the wholesale price does. It would incentivise people to take up energy when it is cheap. This would reduce peak demand later.
 

A large percentage of people now have electric cars. 20% of new car sales are electric. Filling them when wholesale prices are low reduces demand later. But at the moment there is no connection between wholesale and retail prices.

Even without batteries these times could be used to heat water for showers in the morning Energy Cloud is a charity that encourages this 'Diverting surplus renewable energy which would otherwise be wasted, with a primary focus homes in fuel poverty'. The price mechanism will do it as well. If electricity becomes cheap because it is plentiful people will use more of it then.

'The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh' and that was 2023 and prices keep dropping. At 44 cents a kWh, the current rate, 285 charges for free would pay for that battery. We are getting to the point where a battery charged at night by wind and during peak sunshine, when there are low wholesale prices, can be used in the morning and in the evening, twice a day. Which means with lower cost electricity than 22c that is currently paid at night in smart schemes batteries pay for themselves really fast.

Large infrastructure projects are now being rejected because of our electricity grid not being stable enough. South Dublin Council refuses Google Ireland data centre planning permission. And one simple way to reduce this is allowing smart meters to actually be smart and reduce retail prices when wholesale prices drop. That incentivises electricity usage to be match supply.