Wednesday, September 24, 2025

The 40-tool limit in Tools of AI

Theres a rule of thumb in AI agents where they should only be able to call 40 apis. After that confusion between different systems becomes a problem. Cursor has a hard limit of 40 in its MCP setup for example.

This i think could be a cognitive limit (like Dunbars number). The documentary The Price of Everything describes how Stefan Edlis an art collector only collects 40 artists (and 200 works of art). And how a hedge fund manager says that 40 is the limit on the number of stocks an analyst can follow.

It could be that there is a 40 limit on the number of complex things you can track and possible 200 individual abilities is the limit.


By having parameters,
my life is a lot easier.
- Which parameters?
- Well, 200 works, 40 artists.
-I mentioned that to a very important hedge fund guy about
five, six years ago, he smiled.
He says, "That's interesting.
My analysts can only follow
about 40 stocks."

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Climate Bets on Coal

 I have made two bets on climate recently. 

I believe coal usage for electricity by China will be lower in 2025 than it was in 2024. Using Ember Energy as a data source. And I will take a $10 bet on that at 50:50 odds.

and one on world coal usage. I think this year 2025 will have lower coal usage for electricity in the entire world than 2024. But if any of the years coming up do I will win this bet. 


I am not sure on these bets. I just calculated now 
The percentage change in coal generation from 2024 to 2025 is: -0.72% but a lot can change in the remaining months.