Tuesday, February 05, 2019

English soccer is not normal

Are wins in football normally distributed? If they are not it might affect how we should calculate the probabilities of teams winning.

Baseball wins seem not to follow a normal distribution

There is a great R Package dataset of football results by James Curley here. This engsoccerdata has a function to generate soccer league tables of many countries over a long time period.

       league<-maketable_all(df=england[,])
       
 

team GP W D L gf ga gd Pts Pos

1 Manchester United 962 604 209 149 1856 847 1009 2021 1

and create a new column for the percentage of wins

       league<-league %>% 
    mutate(PercentW = W / GP)

p<-ggplot(data=league, aes(league$PercentW)) + geom_histogram()
#binwidth=20
p<-p + ggtitle("Percentage wins\n in English football league") +   xlab("Percentage Wins") + ylab("Number of Teams")
p<-p+theme_update(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))
p<-p + theme_bw()
       
 

       library(fitdistrplus)
library(logspline)
x<-league$PercentW
fit.norm <- fitdist(x, "norm")
plot(fit.norm)
       
 

       shapiro.test(x)       
 
Shapiro-Wilk normality test

data: x W = 0.96276, p-value = 0.0006663 Which means English football wins really do not have a normal distribution.

Goals per game are also not normally distributed. But I dont think anyone expectes them to be

       
league<-league %>% 
    mutate(GoalsPgame = gf / GP)
shapiro.test(league$GoalsPgame)

 

Shapiro-Wilk normality test data: x W = 0.92134, p-value = 4.818e-07

And for France

Shapiro-Wilk normality test

data: leagueF$PercentW W = 0.98522, p-value = 0.4699 so French football wins do not have might have (thanks for Paulfor the correction in the comments) a normal distribution. I must check the other leagues in the dataset as behaviour this different is odd.

Thursday, January 10, 2019

The Oldest Irishman Joke

John Scotus Eriugena (c. 815 – c. 877) was on the five punt note. And won a Michael D Higgins look alike competition in 870AD.

The French king sat opposite him and asked.

'Quid distat inter sottum et Scottum?' (What separates a sot [drunkard] from an Irishman?),

Eriugena replied, 'Tabula tantum' (Only a Table).

I think the gag setup still works 1200 years later.

What separates man from the animals?

The Liffey

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Ireland Carbon reduction by 2030

How are we going to meet Ireland's carbon reduction aims in the next eleven years?

How much do we need to reduce Carbon by?

We have committed to 'reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent (compared to 1990 levels)'. Which is 60% of 56 million tonnes our carbon output by 40%. Which is 33.6 million tonnes of around 42.5% of our current carbon usage.

How would we do this?

On a personal level not an industrial one what would I have to do to reduce my carbon output by 40%? Please correct me if I am wrong here but roughly it seems to be

1. Get rid of my car. (as seen in Show Table: 2.5) 20% of our carbon output is Transport. Electric cars do not seem to be vastly more efficient than petrol ones.

2. Become Vegan. This seems to reduce food Carbon by about 40% .

3. Insulate the house and install energy efficient appliances. This seems to make less impact than cars and meat.

4. Sign up to airtricity. This one is easy enough.

How would this happen?

This all seems asking a lot. On transport Public transport subsidies would have to increase massively immediately. Even then 30% of Irish people live in the countryside which is really hard to do without a car.

It could be that rewilding the countryside means that we do not need to reduce carbon outputs by as much. But that would be a huge undertaking by itself.

Why is all this not being talked about? If I am totally wrong here please explain in the comments how to reduce by 40% in an easier way. If it is that we have to go vegan, live in cities and massively boost public transport starting immediately that seems to be a massive task.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Trumps Year 1

I posted here a year ago four things that if Trump improved he'd be keeping major campaign promises. Measures for a successful Trump

1. Better healthcare. Cover Everybody, cost less and have lower deducables - No things got Worse. America's uninsured rate is on the rise.

2. "If Trump can deliver an average of more than 3% over his 4 years in office I think an impartial observer would agree the economy has done well." Didnt happen in year 1. "The economy grew 2.3 percent in 2017, better than the year before, but far short of what Trump is promising. Officials had focused on 3 percent GDP growth as proof his economic policies were working, and Trump has said it could go far beyond that target."

3. A balanced Budget. Didn't happen 'the House of Representatives passed its version of a tax reform bill that added an estimated $1.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.' The vote this year was not for an immediate reduction in the deficeit.

4. Infrastructure improvements didn't obviously happen but in fairness this would take time. So it cant be called based on the data that only goes up to 2016

Three of these measures did not succeed this year.

Wednesday, December 06, 2017

The Best Books I Read in 2017

I read 60 books so far this year. These are my favorites

Non fiction

1. The Toaster Project- This seems like you could get it across in a Ted talk. Things are far more complicated then you imagine and getting them as cheap as we do is amazing. But its really funny to follow him for a long time and see the frustrations he goes through learning this. Secondly I found it oddly cheering. No one does anything all we do is add a tiny bit to what the millions around us do so don't take yourself so seriously.

Runners up:

A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World why do loads of us live long well feed lives? doesn't answer the question but gives loads of evidence of what didn't cause it.

Corruption: What Everyone Needs to Know?. corruption as a basic dishonesty seemed really important this year. Why it happens and at can be done about it in a short easy read.

Also very good: Other Minds: The Octopus, Silk Roads, Vermeer's Hat, Fifty Things that Made the Modern Economy, Stubborn Attachments

Fiction

We Have Always Lived in the Castle A creepy southern Gothic story with a very unreliable narrator. I have read loads of Shirley Jackson this year.

Runners up: The Handmaid's Tale

also very good The Death of Ivan Ilych, High-Rise and loads of Ross MacDonald books.

I havent done one of these in year so my favorite non fiction in 2015 was Wood, G.D.: Tambora: The Eruption That Changed the World and in 2016 was Money: The Unauthorised Biography by Martin Felix

I had great fun reading this year. Next year I must stay off twitter and chess.com and read more.

Monday, October 30, 2017

Truncated Prime Pictures

Is it just the last digit that causes primes not to be normal numbers? As in is it the lack of ending in 2,4,6,8,0 that means the walk on them doesn't look random like pi does? This post looks at the same walks as the other recent posts but with the least significant dropped.

I made the graph dropping the last digit from each prime. The walk looks different but not that different. similar to some of the other walks I calculated

I made a barchart of the counts of digits in prime numbers up to 10138889.

The same graph not including the final digit also shows this truncated view is not normal either. A graph of the truncated counts on all numbers up to 10158737 is 60 million digits

This really does look normal. So it looks like Prime numbers except the least significant digit might be normal but making a walk with them still shows them moving from the origin at too quick a rate to be really a random walk in the digits.

I made a heatmap of which numbers follow each other in the primes up to ten million digits.

and the primes except the last digit

Code is here

Friday, October 27, 2017

More Prime Pictures

Smarandache Sequence as a horizontal color representation. First digit is the first pixel top left. Each number is its own color. Move one step to the right and each 1000 drop down a step. Code is here

Thsi idea is from Walking on real numbers though they did not look at the prime number concatenated.

Using the first 11066873 prime digits if the previous number was smaller go up a step if it was larger go down a step. The path crosses zero the 204 times.

Using the first 2010484 prime digits if the previous number was smaller go up a step if it was larger go down a step. The path crosses zero the 197 times.

I am still not sure these pictures mean anything.