Friday, January 22, 2016

England's Temperature in 2015

Nine days in 2015 were the hottest for that day of the year since 1772. This compares to three in 2014, though 2014 had a hotter average temperature and was the hottest year on record in the UK.

England has a collected data on daily temperature from 1772 in the Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) dataset.

I downloaded this Hadley Centre dataset. And I followed this tutorial. Based on an original graphic by Tufte.

Here the black line is the average temerature for each day last year. The dark line in the middle is the average average temperature (95% confidence). the staw coloured bigger lines represent the highest and lowest average daily temperature ever recorded on that day since 1772. the red dots are the days in 2015 that were hotter than any other day at that time of year since 1772.

Looking at the black line that represents last years temperatures it was the Winter and Autumn that were far above average. Instead of a scorching hot summer most of the record hot days were in November and December. 2014 had the same pattern of a hot Winter. No day in 2015 was the coldest for that date in the recorded time.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

In 2100 there will be a kilometer tall building

I was in the Burj Khalifa last week. It is very big. But when will some bigger building be built? I want to look at the building height trend to see what the trend line says. Talking the wikipedia page on the Tallest Building. There are two eras shown. The religious era (1200-1901) and the Skyscraper era. I put the data in a csv here.

The Correlation here is cor(Year,Height) [1] 0.39831 which isn't much. Basically Cathedral's burned down and were replaced by a similar sized world's tallest building from 1200 until 1900.

Looking just at the Skyscraper era 1884 on. cor(Year,Height) [1] 0.9340458 which really looks like height increases by follow time. Running this as a linear regression the Kilometer tall bulding is not expected until the end of the century

linearModelVar <- lm(Height ~ Year, newdata)


646.6246 The Burj Khalifa was much taller than any building was expected to be in 2010


1002.799 finally a kilometer tall building in 2099


1604.903 a Mile high tower 2241 far into the future?

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Is Netflix making us smarter?

Vox has an article that mentions the artistic benefits of on demand TV viewing
The first factor was the rise of the DVR, which has made it cheaper and easier than ever before for people to record their favorite shows and watch them at their leisure. This has been great for television artistically, since it means creators can now more readily assume that every single episode of their show will be consumed in sequence.

Stephen Johnson's book "Everything Bad Is Good For You" analyses the complexity of TV programs from the 1970s and today and shows how much more complex modern ones are. Compare Columbo with one murderer shown at the start and it takes 70 minutes for them to be found out. Whereas a more modern CSI is 43 min of multiple plots with loads of characters.

The Vox piece points out that episodic series like CSI with few series long story arcs now seem outdated. Viewers are expected to keep information about longer plots now. Meaning there are more details about the characters and their relationships viewers need to track. Series you can play back at any time may be cognitively as well as artistically beneficial.