Off Patent Ozempic and the Summer of 2026

I predicted in 2024 that 10% of us would 6kg of bodyweight this year. Here is how an even bigger effect might happen.

GLP-1 drugs start going off patent in India, China, Turkey, Canada, Brazil March 2026

Usually when drugs go off patent the price drops dramatically (32% in one year 80% in 8 years)

And as price drops people take more of something. I am not sure how much 'importing from India' sort of stuff will happen after March. But imagine the Brazilian, or Indian population get a side hustle of bringing in generic Ozempic. Loads of people take botox injections from beauticians and that seems pretty outside the usual medical system so something similar already happens. Even just dental and baldness trips to Turkey are a big thing getting weightloss jabs while there are another potential route.

Like any drug, not everyone reacts well to these so some will try them and give them up. But what happens if a larger percentage suddenly starts taking them? Grocery spending on snacks goes down a lot. 6% reduction in total spend but most of that focused on the unhealthier foods.

But there is one effect that jumps out. Booze 

About half of booze is consumed by alcoholics or borderline alcoholics. Theres evidence that these drugs roughly half alcohol consumption in this group. If heavy drinkers take up Ozempic in a big way that will lead to a huge drop in alcohol sales. 

If the price of these drugs drops a lot the savings on alcohol will make up a significant chunk of the costs of the drug itself for this group. For example at 160 euro a month in Ireland. At 6 euro a pint in a pub here that add up to under a pint a day currently. If going off patent drops that drug price a lot these drugs could save a lot of money for heavy drinkers.

Younger people already drink less than their parents did at their age. And average drinking amounts have been falling for a quarter of a century. 

Combine the effects and its possible to imagine a huge swath of pubs closing fairly rapidly. A large cohort of the best customers reducing drinking rapidly. And general social trends showing this won't pick up in the future. Could make irelands pub culture disappear quite fast.

edit: March 31st 2026 'Sun Pharmaceutical, one of the top generics manufacturers in the world, on Saturday launched a generic semaglutide for as low as 750 rupees ($8) for a weekly injection,' that is a saving money as consumption falls price as in reduction of consumption of treats and booze would pay $8 a week. 'Snacks and soda took the brunt of reduced spending by consumers after GLP-1 treatment: snacks and confectionary (-52%), prepared baked goods (-47%), soda/sugary beverages (-28%), alcoholic beverages (-17%) ' 

Indian GLP-1 generics prices in April 2026 have already dropped to below 40 euro a month.

Dry January 2021

Is 2021 a good time to not drink booze for a month?

Reasons it is not: Things are tough and if a pint makes them less tough for you in a dark scary January rock on for yourself. This post is not trying to rag on anyone.

Reasons it is:
1. Health short term. Several studies have shown giving up booze for a month improves sleep and liver health. Reduces weight, cholesterol, Blood pressure and blood glucose

"Richard de Visser, University of Sussex, surveyed 857 participants of Dry January 2019 before and after their month of abstinence, finding 71 per cent slept better, 67 per cent had more energy, 58 per cent lost weight, and 54 per cent had better skin".
"Our study saw a weight loss of around 2kg, a decrease in blood pressure of around 5%, and improvement in diabetes risk of almost 30%." 

2. Speculative Coronavirus: Someone who has slept better, has lower blood pressure and weighs less is probably slightly less likely to have really bad covid effects. Those links at least suggest improving each should bring benefits. I can find no specific moderate alcohol and covid research but I would lay a bet that improving these biomarkers improves slightly overall outcomes. Even a very small effect is also fairly easy to achieve, all it is is a month of not doing something.

3. Pubs are closed. Meeting your friends for pints are the best drinks and you are not going to have those this January anyway.
Helping out pubs by going there through the usual January lull is good for them. But they are closed now so you can't do that this year.
Having to explain to your mates that you are on not drinking can be a bit intimidating. Though in my experience people are fine with it in practise. But you do not have that worry this year as you won't be out with them. These usual pub related reasons to not do dry January are not present this year.

4. Long term effects: Dry January does seem to reset drinking and reduce long term quantities. 'The research by de Visser found that in August the following year after taking part in Dry January, the 800 abstainers had cut back. The number of days they drank alcohol fell from an average 4.3 to 3.3 a week, the units consumed had slid from 8.6 to 7.1 per session, and frequency of drunkenness had fallen from 3.4 days per month to 2.1.' 

Replacement Options

You could really be thirsty. Drinking lots of water and other non alcoholic drinks to replace any booze you were drinking might make things easier.
Alcohol free beers have improved a lot in recent years. I think they used to have to evaporate off the alcohol. But now new yeasts can make beer tasting flavours without producing alcohol so this removal stage is skipped.
Alcohol free beers I have tried include

Lidl Non IPA is my favorite 9/10
BrewDog Nanny State quite nice though I could not imagine drinking loads of them 8/10

Heineken 0.0% Non-Alcoholic Beer decidely meh 3/10

Bitburger Drive grand 6/10

Budvar 4/10

Perlenbacher 0.0% 7/10

Beck's Non-Alcoholic I didn't like this. It tastes chemically 2/10

Carlsberg non alcoholic Better than Heineken 6/10

Guinness "Pure Brew" 6/10

Dungarvan Main Sail I really liked though it might be hard to get 9/10

In general the east European boring lagers do a non alcoholic beer and any I have tried have been grand.

I do not have great taste in beer. So get a bottle of each one you see and try yourself to find one you like. I do not see the point of alcohol free spirits. Red grape juice is worth getting if you drink red wine. Some people find they eat more sweets during dry January.

If you can get some sort of exercise challenge for the month I feel it gives you something useful to focus a bit on. Starting Strength weightlifting is good though it might be hard with the gyms closed. Couch to 5km is easier given the current circumstances. Some people swear by Yoga or hot baths to help them chill out.

That is my four reasons it might be a good idea to not drink this January. And a few replacement options that can help. If you do try Dry January let me know how you get on?