Thursday, February 28, 2008

PS3 makes a comeback

The PPX betting exchange has a bet that the PS3 will be more popular then the Wii or the Xbox360 in the final quarter of 2009. Betting exchanges only says what people believe is likely to happen. They have been very accurate predictors in the past.

This bet of the PS3's success this bet has shown a general decline in value from 50% likely to under 10% at its lowest. There has been a recent upsurge in the value of this bet. This means people are starting to believe it is more likely that the PS3 will win the console war. Some possible explanations for this are that betters believe that
1. The victory of Blu-Ray over HD-DVD means that people will now buy the PS3 as a media player.
2. The Xbox360 will be replaced by another console
3. The Wii’s popularity is a short term event.

For the probability of the PS3 winning the console war to go from 10% to 30% indicates a major change in attitude to the PS3. This could be important to game developers/reviewers who need to decide what console to concentrate on. It could also affect consumers who want to decide which console to buy as the most successful console tends to have more games options available.

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